Finance

SpaceX IPO Soars Further as Options Break Records

Is SpaceX's IPO a $2 trillion speculative trap or the most asymmetric opportunity in market history?

Published 3 days ago

SpaceX IPO Soars Further as Options Break Records

Story

Above: The SpaceX logo displayed on a smartphone in front of a stock market chart on June 16. Image credit: Cheng Xin/Getty Images

The Spin

Narrative A

SpaceX's IPO is a textbook case of hype outrunning reality, as the stock is trading at 115 times sales while losing nearly $5 billion a year. Morningstar pegs fair value at just $63 a share, a 53% discount to the offering price, because the moonshot AI scenario has only a 7% chance of working. Buying into a $2 trillion valuation built on unproven orbital data centers and a single man's unchecked voting control is speculation, not investing.

Morningstar

Options Animal on Substack

Narrative B

SpaceX is a civilization-scale bet on the off-Earth economy, and traditional valuation math simply doesn't apply. Orbital AI compute, a reusable Starship dropping launch costs 500-fold, and Starlink's global cash engine make this the most asymmetric opportunity in market history. Betting against Elon Musk's track record has been wrong every single time, and the options market is already pricing in unprecedented volatility spikes that reward prepared traders.

Pure Power Picks

Metatrends on Substack